When Can We Expect the Numbers That Matter for Social Security?

If you’ve been waiting to hear about next year’s Social Security news today, you’re not alone. The government shutdown has completely disrupted the usual timeline. Millions of beneficiaries are waiting. Here’s where things stand: the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish September’s Consumer Price Index data on Oct. 24. Nine days late, certainly, but at this point, the delay represents a significant challenge for planning purposes.

This particular report carries substantial weight. It’s the final piece of the puzzle. According to Social Security Administration guidelines, the cost of living adjustment gets calculated using inflation averages from three specific months: July, August and September. Without that September figure, the exact percentage increase retirees will see in their checks come January becomes impossible. The calculation depends entirely on this data.

What Is the Social Security Increase for 2026?

The Senior Citizens League recently projected a 2.7% COLA for 2026. That’s slightly above this year’s 2.5% bump. But here’s the thing: these projections remain educated estimates until we see the actual September inflation numbers. A surprise swing in either direction could push that percentage higher or lower.

Under typical circumstances, the Social Security Administration would have announced the official COLA this week. Instead, the shutdown forced the BLS to close its doors. Economists and retirees alike are now checking their calendars and hoping for answers. Many people find themselves unable to plan their budgets without knowing the exact Social Security benefits 2026 will bring.

For those trying to understand how this affects their personal situation, it’s worth checking SSA.gov for the most current information and benefit calculators that can help you estimate your individual payment amounts once the official COLA is announced.

Understanding How COLA Calculations Work

The Social Security Administration follows a specific formula established by law. The process works like this:

1. The BLS measures inflation using the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for the third quarter of each year.
2. The SSA compares the average CPI-W from July through September of the current year to the same period from the previous year.
3. The percentage increase, if any, becomes the COLA that applies to benefits starting the following January.

This methodology has been in place since 1975, when Congress enacted automatic annual adjustments to help benefits keep pace with inflation. Before that, increases required specific legislation.

Why Is the Bureau Making an Exception?

The BLS doesn’t usually prioritize specific reports during shutdowns. This time represents a departure from standard protocol. They’re calling back workers specifically to compile that September Consumer Price Index.

The reasoning behind this decision deserves attention. According to the agency, releasing this data allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines and “ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits.” That’s bureaucratic language for something fundamentally important: millions of Americans depend on these checks, and the law requires the government to get the calculations right and get them out on time.

The BLS made it clear Friday that other releases won’t see the same priority. “No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services,” they stated. To put it simply: this one’s critical. Everything else can wait.

The Legal Requirements Behind the Timeline

Federal law mandates that Social Security beneficiaries receive notice of their new benefit amount by December 31 of each year. The SSA typically sends these notices in early December, which means they need the September CPI data by late October at the absolute latest. Missing this deadline would affect not just retirees, but also disabled workers, survivors and Supplemental Security Income recipients who rely on these notices for their own financial planning.

What Else Is Missing from the Economic Picture?

September’s jobs report remains unavailable.

Economists who normally rely on government data to understand where the economy is headed are now piecing together information from private sources instead. You might wonder how this affects the bigger picture. The truth is, crucial details remain missing.

The timing presents particular challenges. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September for the first time this year, responding to concerns about the labor market. But how can officials assess whether those concerns have grown or eased without fresh employment numbers? They can’t. At least not with their usual level of confidence.

Private sector data from companies like ADP and surveys from regional Federal Reserve banks provide some insight, but these sources don’t carry the same comprehensive scope as the official Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. The government’s employment data includes detailed breakdowns by industry, demographic groups and geographic regions that private sources simply can’t match.

How Long Might This Shutdown Last?

House Speaker Mike Johnson made a sobering prediction Monday: this shutdown could become the longest in American history. The Louisiana Republican also drew a line in the sand, saying he “won’t negotiate” with Democrats until they pause their health care demands and agree to reopen the government.

Political standoffs have shut down the government before. But the timing of this one creates unique complications. When economic data disappears during a period of uncertainty, with inflation still hovering above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and the full effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs still unknown, policymakers are essentially operating without complete information.

A common mistake is assuming these shutdowns don’t affect everyday Americans. They do. Social Security changes depend on timely data releases. Without them, uncertainty grows.

Historical Context for Government Shutdowns

The longest shutdown in U.S. history lasted 35 days, from December 2018 through January 2019. During that period, approximately 800,000 federal workers were either furloughed or required to work without pay. However, Social Security benefits continued to be paid because the program is funded through dedicated payroll taxes rather than annual appropriations. The administrative functions that calculate and announce COLAs, though, do depend on appropriated funds for the agencies involved.

What Does This Mean for Interest Rates?

Despite the information blackout, financial markets seem confident about what’s coming next. Traders are pricing in a 99% chance of another quarter-point rate cut this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. That’s about as close to certain as markets get.

This raises an uncomfortable question: should the Fed be making major decisions without complete data?

Interest rates affect everything from mortgage payments to business loans to credit card bills. When the people setting those rates can’t see the full economic landscape, there’s more room for miscalculation. It’s worth considering the implications of policy decisions made with incomplete information.

The Federal Reserve operates independently from the appropriations process, so its staff continues working during shutdowns. However, the Fed relies heavily on data from other government agencies to inform its decisions. Without that information, policymakers must lean more heavily on anecdotal evidence, private sector reports and their own regional surveys.

Why This Matters Beyond Social Security Payments

The delayed COLA announcement affects retirees directly and immediately. But the ripple effects spread considerably wider.

Businesses make hiring decisions based on employment data. Investors adjust portfolios based on inflation trends. Families plan major purchases around interest rate expectations. When government shutdowns block access to this information, everyone operates with increased uncertainty.

And uncertainty, as any economist will tell you, tends to make people cautious. Cautious consumers spend less. Cautious businesses hire less. That caution can slow an economy down all by itself, regardless of what the underlying numbers actually show.

The Broader Impact on Benefit Programs

Social Security isn’t the only program affected by COLA calculations. Supplemental Security Income (SSI), which provides benefits to disabled adults and children with limited income and resources, uses the same COLA percentage. Veterans’ benefits, federal retirement programs and some state assistance programs also tie their adjustments to the Social Security COLA. When you add it all up, this single percentage affects the monthly income of roughly one in five Americans.

What Should Beneficiaries Do While Waiting?

If you’re counting on Social Security, mark Oct. 24 on your calendar. That’s when we’ll finally know the exact COLA for 2026.

Until then, the 2.7% estimate from the Senior Citizens League gives you a reasonable ballpark figure for planning purposes. Keep in mind that even a small percentage change adds up over twelve months. For someone receiving $1,500 monthly, a 2.7% increase means an extra $40.50 per month, or $486 for the year. If the final number comes in higher or lower, adjust your expectations accordingly.

Practical Steps for Planning Your Budget

Here’s how to prepare while waiting for the official announcement:

1. Review your current monthly expenses and identify which costs have increased most significantly over the past year.
2. Calculate what a 2.7% increase would mean for your specific benefit amount by multiplying your current monthly payment by 0.027.
3. Consider whether this increase will cover your rising costs, particularly for healthcare, housing and food.
4. If you’re planning major expenses for early 2026, build in a buffer rather than counting on the maximum possible increase.
5. Check your my Social Security account at SSA.gov to verify your current benefit amount and ensure your direct deposit information is current.

In my experience working with beneficiaries, those who plan conservatively fare better than those who count on optimistic projections. Use the lower estimate when budgeting. If the actual Social Security increase comes in higher, you’ll have a pleasant surprise instead of a shortfall.

Understanding Your Individual Benefit Statement

Based on 2024 regulations, the SSA will mail benefit statements to all recipients showing their new payment amount for January 2026. These statements typically arrive in early December. The statement will show your current benefit, the COLA percentage, the dollar amount of your increase and your new monthly benefit starting in January. It will also reflect any changes to Medicare Part B premiums, which are typically deducted directly from Social Security payments for most beneficiaries.

The Medicare Part B premium for 2026 won’t be announced until November, adding another layer of uncertainty to planning. Some years, increases in Medicare premiums can offset a significant portion of the Social Security COLA, particularly for beneficiaries with higher incomes who pay income-related monthly adjustment amounts.

Looking Ahead to the Official Announcement

The situation does offer one reassurance: despite the political chaos, the BLS is prioritizing this release. Workers are coming back specifically to compile these numbers. The Social Security Administration will get what it needs to calculate benefits accurately, even if everything else remains on hold.

That represents a meaningful commitment in a situation where certainty feels scarce. This latest development demonstrates that even during shutdowns, benefit calculations remain a government priority. The system may be slow right now, but it’s still functioning.

Once the September CPI data becomes available on Oct. 24, the SSA typically announces the official COLA within a few days. You can find the announcement on the SSA’s website, and it will include detailed information about how the calculation was performed and what it means for different categories of beneficiaries.

For personalized guidance about how the COLA will affect your specific situation, including questions about taxation of benefits, Medicare premiums or other deductions, consult SSA.gov or contact your local Social Security office directly. While the national customer service line can provide general information, complex questions about individual circumstances often require speaking with a claims specialist who can review your complete record.

The coming weeks will bring clarity to millions of Americans who depend on Social Security. Until then, patience and conservative planning remain the best strategies for navigating this period of uncertainty.