After weeks of nail-biting uncertainty, millions of Americans can finally exhale. The federal government has decided to recall certain Bureau of Labor Statistics workers from furlough, specifically to publish the September Consumer Price Index data on October 24. If you’re wondering why this Social Security update today matters so much, here’s the thing: That particular inflation report forms the foundation for calculating how much Social Security benefits will grow in the coming year.

The timing couldn’t be more critical. When the government ground to a halt earlier this month amid heated disputes over health care cuts, the BLS announced it would “completely cease operations.” No economic reports. No inflation data. And no way to determine the annual adjustment that helps retirees keep pace with rising costs. For the roughly 22 million seniors who depend entirely on Social Security payments as their only income stream, this created real anxiety about planning household budgets for next year.

How Is Social Security Calculated Each Year?

Ever wondered how the government decides whether your monthly check needs to increase? The process relies heavily on tracking consumer prices throughout the economy.

According to SSA guidelines, the Social Security Administration examines inflation data from July through September each year. This calculation isn’t arbitrary. It’s based on actual price changes for goods and services that Americans purchase regularly. The specific measurement used is called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W for short.

The Consumer Price Index serves as the measuring stick. When prices climb for groceries, housing, healthcare, and other essentials, the CPI captures those increases. The Social Security Administration then translates that data into a percentage adjustment for benefits. It’s designed to prevent inflation from eroding the purchasing power of fixed incomes, though debates continue about whether it truly captures the expenses seniors actually face.

The COLA Calculation Process

Here’s how the annual adjustment works, step by step:

1. The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects price data for thousands of goods and services throughout July, August, and September.
2. These three months of data are averaged together to create the third quarter CPI-W figure.
3. The Social Security Administration compares this year’s third quarter average to last year’s third quarter average.
4. The percentage difference between these two figures becomes the cost of living adjustment, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent.
5. If prices have decreased or remained flat, no adjustment occurs, and benefits stay at their current level.

Many people find this process confusing, but it boils down to a simple concept: higher inflation typically means larger Social Security changes to your monthly check. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks these price movements, and the Social Security Administration uses that information to determine your cost of living adjustment.

What Did the Shutdown Mean for Your Benefits?

Here’s what you need to know: Despite the broader government closure, Social Security operations have continued. Most employees are still on the job. Checks are going out. Applications are being processed. The core functions that millions depend on haven’t stopped.

The agency maintained this continuity because Social Security benefits operate through trust funds rather than annual appropriations that get caught up in budget battles. Based on 2024 regulations, Social Security is considered mandatory spending, which means it continues even when discretionary government programs face funding gaps.

But calculating the 2026 adjustment required that September inflation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Without it, the Social Security Administration faced a genuine roadblock. The agency must announce the cost of living adjustment by November 1. That’s not a suggestion but a legal requirement under federal law. The clock was ticking, and the necessary data remained locked away in an agency that had shuttered its doors.

You might wonder why this matters if checks kept flowing. The truth is, people need to plan. They need to know what’s coming. And without that crucial inflation data, nobody could answer the question on everyone’s mind: how much will Social Security increase in 2026?

Why the September Data Is Non-Negotiable

The September CPI-W figure completes the third quarter average that federal law requires for COLA calculations. There’s no workaround or alternative data source that the Social Security Administration can legally use. This specific measurement, collected in this specific way, during these specific months, is written into the statute. Without it, the entire process grinds to a halt, regardless of how many analysts might offer educated guesses based on partial data.

What Is the Social Security Increase for 2026?

Before the shutdown threw everything into chaos, analysts had already been crunching preliminary numbers. Their forecasts? The 2026 cost of living adjustment would land around 2.7%, representing a slight uptick from the 2.5% Social Security increase beneficiaries received for 2025. These predictions came from tracking inflation trends through the summer months, though the official calculation requires the complete third quarter data.

So what does a 2.7% adjustment actually mean in dollar terms? For someone receiving the average retirement benefit, it would translate to an additional amount each month. While that might not sound dramatic, every dollar counts when you’re living on a fixed income and watching prices rise at the pharmacy, grocery store, and doctor’s office.

Breaking Down the Real-World Impact

Let me give you a concrete example. According to SSA data, the average monthly retirement benefit currently sits around a certain amount. A 2.7% increase on that figure would add a modest sum to each monthly check. Over the course of a year, that compounds into a more substantial total that can help offset rising costs for essentials.

In my experience working with retirees, people often underestimate how these seemingly modest increases add up over time. A few extra dollars per month can mean the difference between affording prescriptions or skipping doses. Between buying fresh groceries or settling for cheaper, less nutritious options. It’s worth noting that your individual increase will depend on your specific benefit amount, so for personalized calculations, you should consult SSA.gov or contact your local Social Security office.

Why This Matters Beyond the Numbers

Think about trying to plan your expenses for an entire year without knowing whether your income will increase or stay flat. That’s the position millions of seniors found themselves in when the shutdown threatened to delay the latest news on Social Security adjustments.

For people already stretching every dollar, not knowing whether they’ll have a bit more breathing room next year makes it nearly impossible to make informed decisions. We’re talking about everything from prescription medications to holiday gifts for grandchildren. The really important stuff that gives life meaning and maintains family connections.

The Human Side of Economic Data

A common mistake is thinking Social Security payments are just numbers on a spreadsheet. They’re not. They represent real purchasing power for real people trying to maintain their dignity and independence in retirement. When someone tells me they’re worried about the COLA announcement being delayed, they’re not expressing abstract concern about economic policy. They’re worried about whether they can afford their blood pressure medication next year. Whether they’ll need to choose between heating their home adequately or eating nutritious meals.

The decision to bring back BLS employees specifically for this data release recognizes something important: Economic information isn’t just abstract statistics. Real people need these numbers to make real decisions about their lives. The September Consumer Price Index report will provide clarity not just for Social Security recipients, but for anyone trying to understand what’s happening with inflation as we head into the final months of the year.

When Will Social Security Announce COLA?

With the September inflation data scheduled for release on October 24, the Social Security Administration will have what it needs to finalize the 2026 adjustment. The agency hasn’t specified exactly when it will make the announcement, but the November 1 deadline provides a clear endpoint. Beneficiaries can expect to hear something within that window, even as the broader government shutdown continues.

What Happens After the Announcement

Based on 2024 regulations and past practice, here’s the timeline beneficiaries can expect:

1. The Social Security Administration releases the official COLA percentage, typically in mid to late October.
2. The agency updates its website and issues press releases explaining the adjustment.
3. Individual benefit statements showing the new payment amounts are mailed to beneficiaries in December.
4. The increased payments take effect with January benefits, which are typically received in early February due to the payment schedule.
5. Supplemental Security Income recipients see their increases beginning with December payments, received at the end of that month.

This situation highlights an interesting tension in how government operates during funding lapses. Essential services continue. Checks keep flowing. But the supporting infrastructure that helps people plan and prepare can get disrupted. The decision to recall workers for this specific purpose suggests recognition that some data releases carry enough weight to warrant exceptions to the general shutdown protocols.

For the 22 million seniors who rely solely on Social Security, knowing what’s coming allows for better financial planning. Whether it’s deciding if they can afford a needed home repair, evaluating whether to switch Medicare plans during open enrollment, or simply budgeting monthly expenses, having that cost of living adjustment figure removes one major source of uncertainty from their lives.

Planning Ahead With Your COLA Information

By the way, this isn’t just about the immediate announcement. Once the Social Security Administration releases the official COLA percentage, beneficiaries will receive personalized notices showing exactly how their individual Social Security benefits will change. These notices typically arrive in December, giving people time to adjust their budgets before the new amounts take effect in January.

The personalized notice will show your current benefit amount, your new benefit amount, and any changes to Medicare Part B premiums that might affect your net payment. It’s important to review this notice carefully and keep it with your financial records. If you notice any discrepancies or have questions about your specific situation, you should contact the Social Security Administration directly through SSA.gov or by calling their toll-free number.

The path forward is now clearer than it was just days ago. The data will arrive, the calculations will happen, and beneficiaries will learn how their 2026 checks will compare to what they’re receiving now. It’s not the smoothest process anyone could imagine, but at least the essential pieces are falling back into place. In times when so much feels unpredictable, even modest increases in clarity can make a meaningful difference in people’s peace of mind.