Why Your Social Security Payments May Shrink Despite COLA

You’re counting on that 2026 cost-of-living adjustment to boost your monthly Social Security payments, but here’s a reality check most people miss. Even with a COLA increase, your actual payment could shrink. Let me walk you through why this happens and what you can do about it.

Social Security keeps 74 million Americans afloat, with typical monthly payments hovering just under $2,000. Sounds straightforward enough, right? Unfortunately, the system has hidden complexities that catch even well-prepared retirees off guard.

Most folks think they understand Social Security basics. You can start collecting at 62, but there’s something called Full Retirement Age (FRA) that keeps creeping higher. Anyone born in 1960 or later reaches that milestone at 67 in 2026. That’s the final stop on this upward climb.

Understanding Full Retirement Age Changes

If you were born in 1959, your FRA jumped to 66 years and 10 months for 2025. Here’s what matters about claiming Social Security benefits early: they get permanently reduced. Forever. And that’s just one way your payments can get smaller.

According to SSA guidelines, early retirement reductions are calculated based on the number of months before your FRA that you begin receiving benefits. The reduction can be substantial, making timing crucial for your financial planning.

The Tax Reality Behind Recent Legislation

The recent One Big Beautiful Bill Act got seniors talking about Social Security taxes. People 65 and older can now grab an extra $6,000 tax deduction if their income stays under $75,000. Sounds like a win, doesn’t it?

But here’s what they don’t tell you upfront: both the White House and Social Security Administration painted this prettier than it really is. They made it sound like benefit taxes had basically vanished for most seniors. That’s only part of the story.

The truth stings a bit: up to 85% of your Social Security income can still get taxed based on your total earnings. This harsh reality stems from 1993 legislation that “increased the limitation on the amount of benefits subject to taxation from 50 percent to 85 percent for single taxpayers with incomes over $34,000 and for taxpayers filing jointly with incomes over $44,000,” according to the SSA.

Shannon Benton from The Senior Citizens League didn’t sugarcoat it in her recent statement: “The Big Beautiful Bill is a good start on providing financial relief for American seniors. The next priority should be providing support for the estimated 7.3 million American seniors who are living on less than $1,000 per month, which is below the federal poverty line.”

How Combined Income Affects Your Benefits

Built a nice retirement nest egg with pensions, 401(k) withdrawals, and part-time work? You might get hit by these tax rules. Your reward for smart planning? A smaller net Social Security check.

Based on 2024 regulations, the IRS calculates what’s called “combined income” to determine if your Social Security benefits are taxable:

  • Add your adjusted gross income
  • Include nontaxable interest
  • Add half of your Social Security benefits

This total determines your tax liability on Social Security payments.

Healthcare Costs That Bite Back: Medicare Premium Deductions

Medicare automatically deducts money from your Social Security payments. For those 65 and older (plus younger folks with qualifying disabilities), Medicare Part B becomes mandatory enrollment for most beneficiaries.

Right now, that monthly premium sits just under $200. Here’s what catches people off guard: it gets pulled straight from your Social Security payment before you see a dime. This happens when every dollar matters more than ever.

The Premium Increase Challenge

The 2025 Medicare Trustees report delivers tough news: Part B premiums are expected to spike about 11.6% in the coming year. That means jumping from $185 to $206.50 for the standard premium. Meanwhile, the projected COLA hovers around 2.7%. You do the math.

It’s pretty ironic. Just when you think you’re getting ahead with a COLA bump, Medicare premiums surge higher, potentially leaving you worse off than before. This scenario affects millions of beneficiaries who watch their anticipated Social Security increases disappear into healthcare expenses.

Understanding Medicare Premium Deductions

According to SSA guidelines, Medicare premiums are automatically deducted when you receive both Social Security benefits and Medicare coverage. Here’s how it works:

  • Social Security calculates your gross benefit amount
  • Medicare Part B premium gets subtracted automatically
  • Any additional Medicare premiums (Part C or D) may also be deducted
  • You receive the remaining amount

For personalized information about Medicare premium deductions, consult SSA.gov or contact your local Social Security office.

The Working Retiree’s Dilemma: Earnings Test Penalties

Thinking about working while collecting Social Security benefits? You’re stepping into a financial complexity called the retirement earnings test. This rule can reduce your payments if you earn too much while claiming early.

How the Earnings Test Works in 2025

For 2025, the numbers work against you if you haven’t reached your FRA and won’t during the year. Cross that $23,400 earnings threshold, and you’ll lose $1 in Social Security benefits for every $2 you earn above that limit. The more you make, the more you lose.

The rules shift somewhat if you’ll reach your FRA during 2025. In that case, you’ll forfeit $1 for every $3 earned above $62,160. Think of it as a penalty system that still hurts but with slightly better odds.

The Silver Lining: Benefit Recalculation

There’s some good news buried in this complexity: these reductions aren’t forever. Once you hit your FRA, Social Security recalculates your benefit amount, potentially giving back some of what you lost through higher monthly payments. But until then, you’re navigating a system that penalizes both early claiming and continued earning.

Based on 2024 regulations, here’s what happens after you reach FRA:

  • Social Security reviews your earnings history
  • They recalculate your benefit to account for months when benefits were withheld
  • Your monthly payment increases to reflect this adjustment
  • The increase continues for the rest of your life

The Bigger Picture: Why These Rules Exist

These measures didn’t just appear overnight. They represent decades of policy decisions trying to balance the system’s long-term survival with what beneficiaries need right now. Federal taxation helps fund the program itself, while Medicare premium deductions keep healthcare coverage accessible.

The earnings test originally aimed to preserve Social Security benefits for people who genuinely needed them. Folks who had actually stopped working. As work patterns evolved and people started viewing Social Security as something they’d earned rather than assistance, these rules began feeling more like punishment than protection.

Making Informed Decisions

Getting a handle on these three reduction triggers helps you make smarter decisions about when and how to claim Social Security benefits. Whether you’re planning to work in retirement, juggling multiple income sources, or simply trying to maximize your monthly payments, knowing these rules saves you from unpleasant surprises.

The key is planning ahead. Understanding your complete financial picture. And maybe talking with professionals who can help you navigate these tricky waters. Your Social Security benefits represent years of hard work and contributions. Make sure you’re getting every dollar you’ve earned.

For the most current information about benefit calculations and potential reductions, visit SSA.gov or speak with a Social Security representative who can provide guidance based on your specific situation.


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